The latest exclusion figures Part 3

In the 2022/23 academic year, permanent exclusions from schools in England were noticeably higher than in the years before the pandemic. But this is only true for some categories of pupil.

The story so far

In Part 1, I observed that permanent exclusions from schools in England, in the academic year 2022/23, had risen to a level much higher than before the pandemic.

The latest exclusion figures Part 1

I suggested that we would need to look at what had happened to exclusion rates in particular demographic groups before we could look for reasons why exclusions had risen so dramatically.

In part 2, I showed that the main contributor to the high level of exclusions was in Key Stage 3¹, where exclusions had risen to an unprecedented level.

The latest exclusion figures Part 2

Many of the interesting patterns in the exclusion figures are the same every year. Boys, FSM pupils², and secondary school pupils are over-represented in the data. London and the South East have very low exclusion rates.³ A lot of discussion centres around SEND⁴ and exclusions. However, I will leave that for now, as the exclusion rate for SEND is frequently misunderstood.⁵

What is more interesting than the long-established pattern of exclusions is the extent to which the patterns seem to have changed. In this third and final post, I will look at whether ethnicity and gender have played a role in the increase in exclusions, and we will see that two large population groups have contributed disproportionately to the high exclusion rates in 2022/23.

Ethnicity and the rise in exclusions

Education pundits often seem convinced that ethnicity and race are important in exclusions.

According to a BBC article about the 2022/23 exclusion figures:

There was also an over-representation of pupils from black or mixed white and black backgrounds.

This is incorrect. There is no category of “mixed white and black backgrounds”. ⁶ As far as black pupils are concerned, the only notable thing is that the gap between black pupils (who have a below-average exclusion rate) and white British pupils (who have an above-average exclusion rate) has widened further. I still hear it claimed that black pupils are more likely to be excluded. This used to be true, but it has not been the case for a few years.⁷

Previously, there had been a figure published for all ethnic minority pupils. This now seems to have been removed from the data⁸.

I’ve calculated this myself.⁹

We can see that exclusions seem to have risen particularly among white British pupils.

The most surprising part of the data

The other interesting change in exclusions was very unexpected. The exclusion rate for girls, which is always much lower than for boys, was unusually high in 2022/23.

The exclusion rate for boys was still much higher than for girls, but far less surprising. It is only marginally higher than before the pandemic.

The dramatic change in exclusions of girls can also be seen in the raw numbers. In 2022/23, exclusions overall were about 1500 higher than the recent peak in 2017/18. However, exclusions of boys were up by less than 400 since 2017/18. Exclusions of girls were up by 1100¹⁰ since 2017/18. 2895 girls were excluded in 2022/23, which is over 1000 more than in any previous year for which I have data. This is an extraordinary change; compared with any of those other years, the number of girls excluded is more than 50% higher.

When I discussed the rise in exclusions among Key Stage 3 pupils in Part 2, I was able to suggest reasons why pupils in this age group might be driving the increase in exclusions. I don’t have any suggestions as to why the increase in exclusions might be disproportionately affecting white British pupils or girls. If you have any ideas, please don’t hesitate to use the comments on this post (which I will open to all subscribers) to make suggestions.

1. Pupils aged 11-14.

2. Eligibility for Free School Meals (FSM) is often used as a measure of disadvantage.

3. Despite this, pundits, activists and politicians often claim that knife crime in London is driven by exclusions.

4. Special Educational Needs and Disabilities.

5. Details of how the exclusion rate for SEND pupils can be misleading can be found in this post, looking at figures from 2021/22:

UPDATED POST: Is SEND a risk factor for exclusion?

6. There is “mixed white and black Caribbean”, which is one of several small groups that consistently have a higher exclusion rate than white British pupils. There is “mixed white and black African”, which usually has an exclusion rate about the same as white British pupils. All other mixed white and black pupils would be included in the generic (and useless) category of “Any other mixed background”.

In 2022/23 the exclusion rates for these groups were:

• White British 0.13%

• Mixed white and black Caribbean 0.24%

• Mixed white and black African 0.14%

• Any other mixed background 0.10%

7. The data for the graph can be found here.

8. Possibly because much of the historical data used in the previous release was incorrect.

9. The data can be found here.

10. ‘To be fair, the peak for girls’ exclusions was 2018/19, not 2017/18. But even compared to that year, girls’ exclusions increased by over 1000.